Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery (한국간담췌외과학회지)

The Korean Association of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery (한국간담췌외과학회)
권호 표지

Scoring of prognostic factors that influence long-term survival in patients with hepatic metastasis of colorectal cancer

  • Ahn, Sung-Woo (Department of Surgery and Research Institute of Clinical Medicine, Chonbuk National University Medical School and Hospital) ;
  • Na, Ahn-Soo (Department of Surgery and Research Institute of Clinical Medicine, Chonbuk National University Medical School and Hospital) ;
  • Yang, Jae-Do (Department of Surgery and Research Institute of Clinical Medicine, Chonbuk National University Medical School and Hospital) ;
  • Hwang, Hong-Pil (Department of Surgery and Research Institute of Clinical Medicine, Chonbuk National University Medical School and Hospital) ;
  • Yu, Hee-Chul (Department of Surgery and Research Institute of Clinical Medicine, Chonbuk National University Medical School and Hospital) ;
  • Cho, Baik-Hwan (Department of Surgery and Research Institute of Clinical Medicine, Chonbuk National University Medical School and Hospital)
  • Published : 2011.08.31
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Abstract

Backgrounds/Aims: To find independent predictors that affect the survival in patients with hepatic metastasis of colorectal cancer after surgery and to devise a risk scoring system. Methods: Among 150 patients who underwent hepatic resection after diagnosis of colorectal cancer with hepatic metastasis between March 1994 and February 2009, we analyzed clinical, pathologic and outcome data retrospectively. Results: The 1-year survival rate was 83%, and the 5-year survival rate was 35%. Nine factors were found to be independent predictors of adverse outcome by univariate analysis: stage of primary tumor, CA19-9 >36 U/ml, extrahepatic disease, distribution of the hepatic tumor, number of hepatic tumors >3, largest hepatic tumor >5 cm, total size >10 cm, CEA >10 ng/ml, and metachronous cancer. The last two of these criteria were also significant risk factors on multivariate analysis. When these criteria were used as a risk scoring system, assigning one point for each criterion and dividing the cases into A, B and C groups, the total score was highly predictive of outcomes (p<0.001). No patients in group C (6 to 9 points) were long-term survivors. Conclusions: Long-term outcome can be predicted from nine criteria that are readily available for all patients. Patients meeting up to two criteria (group A) are more likely to have a favorable outcome compared to the three or over (groups B and C). This scoring system may offer an easy, rapid, and reliable prognostic indicator of survival outcome after hepatic resection in patients with hepatic metastasis from colorectal cancer.

Keywords

References

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