KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Trend Analyses of Intensity and Duration of Typhoons That Influenced the Korean Peninsula during Past 60 Years

과거 60년 간 한반도에 영향을 미친 태풍의 강도 및 지속기간의 경향 분석

  • 오지희 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부) ;
  • 서경덕 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부) ;
  • 김영오 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부)
  • Received : 2010.09.10
  • Accepted : 2011.01.15
  • Published : 2011.04.30
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Abstract

The paper presents trend analyses of the past 60-year-data of intensity (central pressure) and duration of the typhoons that influenced the Korean Peninsula. The singular spectrum analysis was employed to extract the trends. The result of linear regression of the trend component shows that the intensity of typhoons is slightly increased. A long-term change with period of about 30 years was detected, and thus the original series were separated into two sub-periods of 30 years. For these sub-periods, normal and Gumbel distributions of central pressure and duration of typhoons were estimated. The results show that during the second sub-period the overall intensity of typhoon was increased but the occurrence of extreme typhoons remains unchanged. The duration also showed an obvious increase during the second sub-period.

본 연구에서는 과거 60년 간 한반도에 영향을 미친 태풍의 강도(중심기압)와 지속기간에 대한 경향 분석을 실시하였다. 경향 성분 추출을 위해 Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA)를 사용하였고 경향 성분에 대한 선형회귀분석 결과 태풍의 강도가 약간 증가하는 것을 볼 수 있었다. 또한 약 30년의 장주기 변화를 발견하였고, 이에 따라 전체 시계열을 30년 기간의 두 개의 하위 기간으로 나눠서 태풍의 중심기압 및 지속기간에 대한 정규분포 및 Gumbel 분포를 추정하였다. 그 결과 두 번째 기간에 평균적인 태풍의 중심기압은 감소하지만 수퍼 태풍에 해당하는 매우 큰 태풍의 비율은 거의 변화가 없음을 발견하였다. 지속기간에 대해서도 두 번째 기간에 뚜렷한 증가가 있음을 발견하였다.

Keywords

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