동남아의 인구변동: 1950-2050년

The Population Changes of Southeast Asia: 1950-2050

The purpose of this study is to examine the population changes in the nine Southeast Asian countries, including Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Philippine, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand. According to the demographic transition theory which described the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, the demographic changes in less developed countries, including the Southeast Asian countries, follow the general pattern of the population changes that the Western countries had experienced. However, this theory does not consider the fact that the demographic behaviors such as fertility and mortality tend to be ethnocentric (or particular). Therefore, I examine in this paper both the generality and particularity of the population changes in the Southeast Asia . The analytic results are consistent with my assumptions. Every country in the Southeast Asia will soon reach the third phrase of the demographic transition and meet population ageing process. However, the timings arriving at the third phrase can differ. Singapore which is the most developed country had firstly passed through the demographic transition and the highest level of population ageing. Cambodia and Lao People's Democratic Republic, the least developed countries, will lastly arrive at the third phrase and the ageing society. In addition, among the three countries which had experienced war or civil war, only Cambodia had experienced babyboom.