Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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Decision of the Representative Moving Direction of a Storm Event

호우사상의 대표 이동방향 결정

  • 유철상 (고려대학교 공과대학 건축사회환경공학부) ;
  • 박창열 (고려대학교 공과대학 건축사회환경공학부)
  • Received : 2010.01.05
  • Accepted : 2010.01.27
  • Published : 2010.04.30
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Abstract

This study analyzed methodologies for determining the representative direction of a storm event. The mean direction, median direction, and modal direction of von Mises distribution were considered as representative directions. In addition, the results with and without considering the storm moving distance were also compared. As results, the modal directions of von Mises distribution were found to explain the directional characteristics of a moving storm much better than other methods. Also, it was found that the storm moving distance has a significant effect on the determination of representative directions of a moving storm, whose uncertainty can also be decreased significantly by considering the moving distance.

본 연구에서는 하나의 호우사상을 대상으로 호우이동의 대표방향 결정방법에 대해 분석하였다. 대표방향 설정을 위해 평균방향, 중앙방향, von Mises 확률밀도함수의 주방향을 고려하였다. 추가로 호우 이동거리의 고려 여부에 따른 결과의 차이를 비교하였다. 그 결과, von Mises 확률밀도함수의 주방향이 호우이동의 방향적 특성을 가장 잘 설명할 수 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 아울러 호우의 대표 이동방향은 이동거리에 대한 영향을 크게 받으며, 이동거리를 추가로 고려할 경우 대표방향의 불확실성도 크게 작아질 수 있음을 확인하였다.

Keywords

References

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