라디오미터를 이용한 겨울철 강수형태 결정 및 예측가능성 고찰

Determination and Predictability of Precipitation-type in Winter from a Ground-based Microwave Radiometric Profiler Radiometer

The 1,000~500 hPa thickness and the $0^{\circ}C$ isotherm at 850 hPa have been used as the traditional predictors for wintertime precipitation-type forecasts. New approaches are taking on added significance as preexistence method of determination for wintertime precipitation-type exhibits more or less prevalent false alarms. Moreover thicknesses and thermodynamic profiles from ordinary upper-air observation were not adequate to monitor the atmospheric structure. In this regard, Microwave radiometric profiler microwave radiometer is useful in wintertime precipitation-type forecasts because radiometric measurements provide soundings at high temporal resolution. In this study, the determination and the predictability of wintertime precipitation-type were examined by using the calculated thicknesses, temperature of 850 hPa (T850) from a microwave radiometer, and surface observation at National Center for Intensive Observation of severe weather (NCIO) located at Haenam, Korea. The critical values for traditional predictors (thickness of 1000~500 hPa and T850) were evaluated and adjusted to Haenam region because snow rarely occurred with a 1000-500 hPa thickness > 5,300 m and T850 > $-10^{\circ}C$. Three thicknesses (e.g., 1,000~850, 1000~700, and 850~700 hPa thickness), T850, surface air temperature, and wet-bulb temperature were also evaluated as the additional predictors. A simple nomogram and a flow chart were finally designed to determine the wintertime precipitation-type using the microwave radiometer. The skill scores for the predictability of precipitation-type determination are considerably improved and the predictors showed the temporal variations in 12 hours before precipitation. We can monitor the hit and run snowfall in winter successful by realtime watch of the predictors, especially in commutes of big cities.