Journal of Environmental Science International (한국환경과학회지)

The Korean Environmental Sciences Society (한국환경과학회)
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Estimation of Air Temperature Changes due to Future Urban Growth in the Seoul Metropolitan Area

수도권지역 미래 도시성장에 따른 기온변화 추정

  • Kim, Yoo-Keun (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kim, Hyun-Su (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Jeong, Ju-Hee (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Song, Sang-Keun (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University)
  • 김유근 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 김현수 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 정주희 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 송상근 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부)
  • Received : 2009.11.10
  • Accepted : 2010.01.14
  • Published : 2010.02.28
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Abstract

The relationship between air temperatures and the fraction of urban areas (FUA) and their linear regression equation were estimated using land-use data provided by the water management information system (WAMIS) and air temperatures by the Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) during 1975 through 2000. The future FUA in the SMA (from 2000 to 2030) was also predicted by the urban growth model (i.e., SLEUTH) in conjunction with several dataset (e.g., urban, roads, etc.) in the WAMIS. The estimated future FUA was then used as input data for the linear regression equation to estimate an annual mean minimum air temperature in the future (e.g., 2025 and 2030). The FUA in the SMA in 2000 simulated by the SLEUTH showed good agreement with the observations (a high accuracy (73%) between them). The urban growth in the SMA was predicted to increase by 16% of the total areas in 2025 and by 24% in 2030. From the linear regression equation, the annual mean minimum air temperature in the SMA increased about $0.02^{\circ}C$/yr and it was expected to increase up to $8.3^{\circ}C$ in 2025 and $8.7^{\circ}C$ in 2030.

Keywords

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