Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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An Analysis of Choice Behavior for Tour Type of Commercial Vehicle using Decision Tree

의사결정나무를 이용한 화물자동차 투어유형 선택행태 분석

  • 김한수 (한국철도공사 경영연구처) ;
  • 박동주 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 김찬성 (한국교통연구원 국가교통DB센터) ;
  • 최창호 (전남대학교 경상학부) ;
  • 김경수 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과)
  • Received : 2010.10.04
  • Accepted : 2010.12.24
  • Published : 2010.12.31
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Abstract

In recent years there have been studies on tour based approaches for freight travel demand modelling. The purpose of this paper is to analyze tour type choice behavior of commercial vehicles which are divided into round trips and chained tours. The methods of the study are based on the decision tree and the logit model. The results indicates that the explanation variables for classifying tour types of commercial vehicles are loading factor, average goods quantity, and total goods quantity. The results of the decision tree method are similar to those of logit model. In addition, the explanation variables for tour type classification of small trucks are not different from those for medium trucks', implying that the most important factor on the vehicle tour planning is how to load goods such as shipment size and total quantity.

최근 화물수요모형에 화물자동차 투어행태를 반영하기 위한 접근방법이 제시되었다. 화물자동차 이동을 투어기반 접근방법으로 모형화 하기 위해서는 화물자동차 투어와 투어유형에 대한 이해가 필요하다. 본 연구는 화물자동차 투어유형을 왕복형 투어와 체인형 투어로 구분하여 이들 투어유형 선택행태를 분석하였다. 투어유형 선택행태를 분석하기 위한 방법으로는 의사결정나무(decision tree)와 로짓모형(logit model)을 이용하였다. 분석결과 화물자동차 투어유형을 분류하는 설명변수로 화물적재율, 평균화물량, 총화물량이 선정되었으며, 의사결정나무와 로짓모형이 유사한 결과를 도출하였다. 또한 소형과 중형 화물자동차의 투어유형을 분류하는 설명변수가 큰 차이를 보이지 않음에 따라 화물자동차 투어를 계획함에 있어 화물을 어떻게 적재할 것인지가 가장 중요한 것으로 나타났다. 의사결정나무와 로짓모형의 예측력을 비교한 결과는 의사결정나무가 로짓모형에 비해 상대적으로 우수한 결과를 보였는데, 이는 화물자동차 투어유형을 분류함에 있어 로짓모형과 같이 설명변수의 선형적 결합에 의한 분류 보다는 의사결정나무와 같이 다수 설명변수들의 규칙조합으로 분류하는 것이 효과적임을 나타낸다.

Keywords

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