산업공학 (IE interfaces)

  • 제23권4호
  • /
  • Pages.337-348
  • /
  • 2010
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  • 1225-0996(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2234-6465(eISSN)
대한산업공학회 (Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers)
권호 표지

신제품 및 서비스에 있어 이분조각 Bass모형에 의한 확산 패턴 분석

Analysis of Diffusion Pattern in New Product and Services Based on Two-pieces Bass Model

  • 홍석기 (서울과학기술대학교 IT정책전문대학원) ;
  • 홍정식 (서울과학기술대학교 IT정책전문대학원)
  • Hong, Seok-Kee (Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Hong, Jung-Sik (Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
  • 투고 : 2010.07.09
  • 심사 : 2010.10.12
  • 발행 : 2010.12.01
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초록

The Bass model is the most widely used model in research of new product diffusion because it presents a nice explanation on the diffusion process of new products. However, it has a limitation that its performance of fitness is lower as the available data become less and also, the diffusion curve is bell-shape and so, it can not represent the various diffusion patterns. Recently, a two-pieces Bass model is developed and applied to analyze diffusion of 10 products. The results are encouraging in terms of fitness. However, diffusion pattern is not dealt with in the paper. In this paper, analysis of diffusion pattern is in depth addressed in two-pieces Bass model. It is shown that the diffusion curves are divided into 3 types with respect to the peak adoption rate and each type is divided into 2 types further. Takeoff time of a diffusion process is analyzed by using the inflection point and regime-change time where it represents the point that imitation and innovation parameters change. Empirical studies for 68 products(28 domestic products and 40 USA products) are performed to analyze the diffusion pattern. Findings are that diffusion patterns of all products except 1 USA product show type I and regime-change time becomes shorter as the introduction time of the product is later in domestic products and regime-change time can be regarded as a takeoff time in 47% of total 68 products.

키워드

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