Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Application of the Modified CA-Markov Technique for Future Prediction of Forest Land Cover in a Mountainous Watershed

미래 산림식생변화 예측을 위한 개선된 CA-Markov 기법의 적용

  • Park, Min-Ji (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Park, Geun-Ae (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Lee, Yong-Jun (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Kim, Seong-Joon (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • Published : 2010.01.31
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Abstract

토지피복은 대부분의 수문 수질 모형의 중요한 매개변수로서, 수자원 변화 예측에 중요한 입력자료로 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 개선된 CA (Cellular Automata)-Markov 기법을 이용하여 충주댐유역의 미래 산림식생변화에 대한 예측을 시도하였다. 예측과정으로 과거의 Landsat TM 영상 (1985, 1990, 1995, 2000)을 이용하여 기법의 정확도 검증 및 산림분포의 변화경향을 파악하고, Landsat 산림은 2000년과 2005년의 NOAA AVHRR NDVI값을 기준으로 침엽수림, 혼효림, 활엽수림의 3종으로 구분한 후, 이를 이용하여 2030년, 2060년, 2090년의 식생변화를 추정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 이 방법의 적용결과, 2000년과 비교하여 2090년의 활엽수림과 혼효림은 각각 14.3 %, 11.6 % 증가하였으며, 침엽수림은 24.9 % 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 과거의 경향성에 의해 예측을 시도한 본 연구결과는 미래 토지피복 변화에 따른 수문 수질 영향 분석시 지표 조건의 불확실성을 줄이는데 활용될 수 있다고 판단된다.

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