Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Forecasting Monthly Runoff Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

앙상블 예측기법을 통한 유역 월유출 전망

  • 이상진 (한국수자원공사 K-water연구원 수자원연구소) ;
  • 김주철 (한국수자원공사 K-water연구원 수자원연구소) ;
  • 황만하 (한국수자원공사 K-water연구원 수자원연구소) ;
  • 맹승진 (충북대학교 농업생명환경대학 지역건설공학과)
  • Published : 2010.01.31
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Abstract

In this study the validities of runoff prediction methods are reviewed around ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) techniques. The improvements of runoff predictions on Yongdam river basin are evaluated by the comparison of different prediction methods including ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks provided by meteorological agency as well as the runoff forecasting based on the analysis of the historical rainfall scenarios. As a result it is assessed that runoff predictions with ESP may give rise to more accurate results than the ordinary historical average runoffs. In deed the latter gave the mean of yearly absolute error as to be 60.86 MCM while the errors of the former ones amounted to 44.12 MCM (ESP) and 42.83 MCM (ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks) respectively. In addition it is confirmed that ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks could improve the accuracy of the results more and more. Especially the degree of improvement of ESP with meteorological outlooks shows rising by 10.8% in flood season and 8% in drought season. Therefore the methods of runoff predictions with ESP can be further used as the basic forecasting information tool for the purpose of the effective watershed management.

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References

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  1. Developing Model of Drought Climate Scenarios for Agricultural Drought Mitigation vol.54, pp.2, 2012, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.2.067
  2. Long-term Streamflow Prediction Using ESP and RDAPS Model vol.44, pp.12, 2011, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.12.967