토지이용변화에 따른 식생 및 토양의 이산화탄소 저감잠재량 분석

The Analysis of Potential Reduction of CO₂ Emission In Soil and Vegetation due to Land use Change

Land Use Changes (LUCs) have effects on greenhouse gas emissions and carbon stocks in soil and vegetation. Therefore, predictions for LUC are very important for achieving quantitative targets of $CO_2$ reduction rates. Some research exists on carbon fluxes and carbon cycles to estimate carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems in Korea. However, these researches have limitations in terms of helping us understand future potential reductions of $CO_2$ that reflect the influence of LUC. The aim of this study is to analyze the reduction levels of $CO_2$ emissions while considering LUC scenarios that effect carbon fluxes for LCS basic study in the year 2030. In this study, a common approach to model the effects of LUC on carbon stocks is the use of CA-Markov technical process with LUC patterns in the past. Potential reduction of $CO_2$ is calculated by change of land use that contains different soil organic carbon, each land use type, and biomass in vegetation. An IPCC analytical method of natural carbon sink and coefficient results from previous study in Korea is used as a calculation method for potential reduction of $CO_2$. As a result, 12,419 KtC will be reduced annually, which is 8.3% percent of 2005 $CO_2$ emissions in Korea. This will result in 3,226 hundred million won of economic efficiency. In conclusion, conservation of natural carbon sinks is necessary even if the amount of potential reduction change is little.