한국항해항만학회지 (Journal of Navigation and Port Research)

  • 제33권4호
  • /
  • Pages.255-261
  • /
  • 2009
  • /
  • 1598-5725(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2093-8470(eISSN)
한국항해항만학회 (Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Probabilistic Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach

  • Long, Zhan-Jun (Dept. of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Lee, Seung-Keon (Dept. of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Lee, Sung-Jong (Dept. of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Jeong, Jae-Hun (Dept. of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Pusan National University)
  • 발행 : 2009.06.30
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

Prediction of the stability for ships is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of capsize for a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of stability for ships. The probability of shipsencountering different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Ben, W. and Sampson, R.(2006), "Suitability of Stability Criteria Applied to Small Fishing Vessels and Associated Survivability Research Project 557"
  2. Francescutto, A. (2007), "The Intact Ship Stability Code Present status and future developments." Session A
  3. Gu, J. Y. (2004), "Nonlinear Rolling Motion of Ship in Random Beam Seas." Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol.12, No.4, pp. 273-279
  4. IMO (1987), "Recommendation on Resolution A.562(14) Research Project"
  5. Iqbal, K and Bulian, G. (2008), "A rational analysis of intact stability hazards involving small inland passenger ferries in Bangladesh." Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol.13, No.3, pp. 270-281 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-008-0016-3
  6. Kobylinski, L. (2007), "Stability of ships: risk assessment due hazards created by forces of the sea". Hydronav 2007 Intern. Conference, pp. 51-62
  7. Kobylinski, L. (2008), "Stability and safety of ships:holistic and risk approach" Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications, Vol.1, No.1, pp. 11-16
  8. Konovessis, D. and Vassalos, D. (2007), "Risk-based design for damage survivability of passenger Ro-Ro vessels." lOS Press 54, pp. 129-144
  9. Lee, S. K and Surendran, S. (2005), "Roll performance of a small fishing vessel with live fish tank." Ocean Engineering, Vol.32, No.14, pp.1873-1885 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2004.11.011
  10. Lee, S. K Long, Z. J. (2009), "Risk assessment method of simulation-based for the intact ship stability." International Conference on Computational & Experimental Engineering and Sciences(ICCES'09). Phuket, Thailand, pp. 20-28
  11. Mamontov, E. and Naess, A. (2009), "An analytical-numerical method for fast evaluation of probability densities for transient solutions of nonlinear It's stochastic differential equations." International Journal of Engineering Science, Vol.47, No.1, pp.116-130 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijengsci.2008.08.001
  12. Marta PEDISIC BUCA and SENJANOVIC, I. (2006), "Nonlinear ship rolling and capsizing." BRODO GRANDJA, Vol.57, No.4, pp. 321-331
  13. McTaggart, K A. (1992), "Wind effects on intact ship stability in beam seas." Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, Vol.44, No.1, pp.2487-2498 https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(92)90040-H
  14. McTaggart, K. A. (1999), "Capsize Risk Assessment Using Fredyn Ship Motion Predictions Technical Memorandum"
  15. Neves, M. A. S. and Rodriuez, C. A. (2009), "A coupled non-linear mathematical model of parametric resonance of ships in head seas." Applied Mathematical Modelling, Vol.33, No.6, pp. 2630-2645 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2008.08.002
  16. Paik, J. K. and Thayamballi, A. K. (2007), "Ship-shaped offshore installations: design, building, and operation", New York, Cambridge University Press
  17. Senjanovic, I. and Cipric, G. (2000), "Survival analysis of fishing vessels rolling in rough seas", Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol.358, No.1771, pp.1943-1965 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2000.0622
  18. Soliman, M. S. and Thompson, J. M. T. (1991), "Transient and steady state analysis of capsize phenomena", Applied Ocean Research, Vol.13, No.2, pp.82-92 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0141-1187(05)80065-3
  19. Taylan, M. (2003), "Static and dynamic aspects of a capsize phenomenon", Ocean Engineering, Vol.30, No.3, pp. 331-350 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0029-8018(02)00027-6
  20. Wright, J. H. G. and Marshfield, W. B. (1980), "Ship roll response and capsize behaviour in beam seas", Transactions, Royal Institution of Naval Architects, Vol.122, pp. 129-148