Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Valuation of Irrigation Water: A Chance-Constrained Programming Approach

확률제약 계획모형법을 이용한 농업용수의 경제적 가치 평가

  • Kwon, Oh-Sang (Dept. of Ag. Economics & Rural Development, Seoul National Univ.) ;
  • Lee, Tae-Ho (Dept. of Ag. Economics & Rural Development, Seoul National Univ.) ;
  • Heo, Jeong-Hoi (Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • 권오상 (서울대학교 농경제사회학부, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 이태호 (서울대학교 농경제사회학부, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 허정회 (한국농촌경제연구원)
  • Published : 2009.04.30
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Abstract

This study estimates the value of irrigation water in Korea using an economic programming model that is constructed with all the resource endowment constraints, technology restrictions and policy variables. The variability and uncertainty of water resource endowment are incorporated into the model through the chance-constrained technique. Solving the profit maximization problems with gradually reduced water endowments, we derive a series of shadow values of irrigation water. It has been found that uncertainty in water supply raises the damage from water loss, and the marginal damage increases in water loss.

본고는 경제적 최적화모형인 확률제약 계획모형법을 이용하여, 농업용수 부존량 감소에 따른 농업이윤의 감소분을 계측하고 이를 통해 농업용수의 경제적 가치를 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 국가 전체 농업자원배분을 최적화 모형으로 구축하고, 농업용수를 포함하는 자원부존제약조건과, 각 상품의 가격이 형성되는 시장조건, 국제무역 및 관련정책변수의 영향들을 반영하고, 용수의 경우 그 이용량이 연도별로 불안정할 수 있다는 것까지 반영한다. 농업용수감소량이 농업부문 이윤에 미치는 영향을 시나리오를 주어 분석하면, 농업용수의 톤당 경제적 가치는 $303{\sim}1,093$원/$m^3$의 분포를 가지는 것으로 나타난다. 동일한 양의 용수량이 줄어들더라도 용수의 공급이 불안정할수록 경제적 가치 손실이 크며, 아울러 많은 양의 용수손실이 발생할수록 경제적 손실이 커 용수감소의 한계피해는 용수감소량의 증가 함수인 것으로 파악된다.

Keywords

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