Korean journal of applied entomology (한국응용곤충학회지)

Korean Society of Applied Entomology (한국응용곤충학회)
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Developing Sequential Sampling Plans for Evaluating Maize Weevil and Indian Meal Moth Density in Rice Warehouse

쌀 저장창고에서 어리쌀바구미와 화랑곡나방 밀도 추정을 위한 축차추출 조사법 (Sequential sampling plans) 개발

  • Nam, Young-Woo (Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Chun, Yong-Shik (Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Ryoo, Mun-Il (Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)
  • 남영우 (고려대학교 생명과학대학 환경생태공학부) ;
  • 천용식 (고려대학교 생명과학대학 환경생태공학부) ;
  • 류문일 (고려대학교 생명과학대학 환경생태공학부)
  • Published : 2009.03.30
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Abstract

This paper presents sequential sampling plans for evaluating the pest density based on complete counts from probe in a rice storage warehouse. Both maize weevil and Indian meal moth population showed negative binomial dispersion patterns in brown rice storage. For cost-effective monitoring and action decision making system, sequential sampling plans by using the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) were developed for the maize weevil and Indian meal moth in warehouses with 0.8 M/T storage bags. The action threshold for the two insect pests was estimated to 5 insects per kg, which was projected by a matrix model. The results show that, using SPRT methods, managers can make decisions using only 20 probe with a minimum risk of incorrect assessment.

본 연구의 목적은 쌀 저장창고에서 추출기를 이용하여 해충의 밀도를 추정하기 위한 축차추출법을 개발하는데 있다. 쌀 저장창고에서는 쌀을 주로 1톤의 톤백에 저장하는데, 현미로 저장되는 경우 어리쌀바구미 성충과 화랑곡나방 유충은 모두 부의 이항분포를 보였다. 축차추출법은 표본 추출 단위당 방제 시작 밀도를 0.1(현미 1 kg당 5마리), 비처리 밀도를 0.05(현미 1 kg당 2.5마리) 그리고 I($\alpha$), II형($\beta$) 오류를 0.3으로 설정하여 순차적 확률비 검정(sequential probability ratio test (SPRT))을 통해 개발하였다. 이러한 결과들은, SPRT법을 사용함으로써, 관리자들이 단지 20회의 표본 추출로도 잘못된 판단의 위험을 최소화하면서 의사결정을 할 수 있다는 것을 보여준다.

Keywords

References

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