한국도로학회논문집 (International Journal of Highway Engineering)

  • 제11권1호
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  • Pages.117-126
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  • 2009
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  • 1738-7159(pISSN)
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  • 2287-3678(eISSN)
한국도로학회 (Korean Society of Road Engineers)
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재해발생으로 인한 사회-경제적 영향분석: 우리나라 사례를 중심으로

Socio-Economic Impacts of an Unscheduled Event: A Case in Korea

  • 발행 : 2009.03.15
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⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

지진을 기록하기 시작한 후로 우리나라에 발생한 지진은 2000회가 넘는 것으로 집계되고 있으며 그 중 48회는 엄청난 피해를 초래한 것으로 나타난다. 지진으로 인한 생산설비나 주요 관로 등의 시설물피해는 특정 지역에 국한되는 것이 아니라 지역간의 상호 의존적 특성에 의해 경제적으로 볼 때 심각한 피해를 주변에 전달하게 된다. 또한 지진과 같이 예측하지 못하는 사건으로 인해 발생하는 경제적 피해는 단순히 시설붕괴 같은 직접적인 손실뿐만 아니라 당해 시설의 보수나 재건에 소요되는 기간을 통틀어 간접적인 손실이 발생하게 됨을 인지해야 한다. 그런데, 지진 등과 같이 예측하지 못한 사건으로 인한 손실과 피해를 입은 시설 등을 보수보강 하거나 재건하는데 필요한 정부투자나 예산지원 금액을 보다 합리적으로 산정하기 위해서는 피해를 입은 지역내부 뿐만 아니라 그 지역이 관계를 맺고 있는 주변지역과의 직 간접 경제적 손실을 제대로 산출해 낼 필요가 있다. 여기서 직접적인 경제손실이라하면 생산시설이나 공급선의 피해로 인해 발생한 수요-공급관계의 1차적 변화를 의미하며, 간접적인 경제손실은 산업구조상 관계를 맺고 있는 다른 부문에서 나타나는 간접적인 변화를 의미한다. 본 논문에서는 지진발생으로 인한 경제적 영향, 특히 우리나라 교통망이 받는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 우리나라의 고속도로, 교량 및 경제 관련 자료를 수집하여 사용하였고, 지진 등 예상하지 못한 사건의 발생으로 인한 최종수요의 손실과 부문별 생산품의 흐름을 예측하였다.

Total number of recorded earthquakes in Korea is more than 2,000 of which 48 were catastrophic. The impacts from infrastructure damage due to an earthquake to production facilities and lifelines may spread across boundaries of several regions via import-export relationships and can bring serious economic impact to other regions. The economic impacts from unscheduled events stem not only from the damage and direct losses, but also from the indirect losses during the recovery and reconstruction periods. To recover and reconstruct the facilities and lifelines damaged by unexpected events through investment or government financial aid, both the direct and the indirect economic impacts from an event need to be measured in regional and interregional contexts. Direct economic impact is the direct change of production and demand due to the disruption of production facilities and lifelines from an unexpected event, and indirect economic impact is the change in other sectors due to inter-industry relationships. The purpose of the paper is to analyze various economic impacts of an earthquake, especially impacts on transportation networks in Korea. We collected spatial and economic data from Korea, and analyzed and estimated final demand loss and commodity flows from the unscheduled event.

키워드

참고문헌

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