Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
권호 표지

An Econometric Analysis of Imported Softwood Log Markets in South Korea - on the Basis of the Lagged Dependent Variable -

  • Park, Yong Bae (Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Youn, Yeo-Chang (Department of Forest Science, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2008.12.02
  • Accepted : 2008.12.24
  • Published : 2009.04.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The objective of this study is to know market structures of softwood logs being imported to South Korea from log producing countries. Import demand of softwood logs imported to South Korea from America, New Zealand and Chile is fixed as a function of log prices, the lagged dependent variable and output. On the basis of the adaptive expectations model, linear regression models that the explanatory variables included and the lagged dependent variable were estimated by Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). The short-run and long-run own price elasticity of America's softwood log import demand is -1.738 and -4.250 respectively. Then long-run elasticity is much higher than short-run elasticity. Short-run and long-run crosselasticity of New Zealand's softwood log import demand with respect to American's softwood log import price are inelastic at 0.505 and 0.883 respectively. Short-run and long-run cross-elasticity of Chile's softwood log import demands with respect to American's softwood log import prices were highly elastic at 2.442 and 4.462 respectively. Long-run elasticity was almost twice as high as short-run elasticity.

Keywords

References

  1. Kim, J.S. and Park, H.T. 1980. Study on the Long-Term Demand Projections for Timber in Korea. Jour.Korean For. Soc. 50: 29-35
  2. Kim, J.-S. 1998. An Analysis of a Roundwood in South Korea on a Basis of the Lagged Dependent Variable.8(1): 131-147
  3. Park, Y.B. and Youn, Y.-C. 2001. An Econometric Analysis of Imported Softwood Log Market in South Korea. Jour. Korean For. Soc. 90(1): 1-9
  4. Park, J.W., Lee, H.J. and Ro, J.H. 1967. Survey on Demand and Supply of Timber. Korea Forestry Experiment Research Report: 125-183
  5. Park, T.S. and Cho, O.H. 1989. Long-term timber demand forecast in the Republic of Korea. Forestry police research report: 149-285
  6. Sung, K.C. 1986. Study on timber consumption trend and demand prospect. Korea Forestry Experiment Research Report: 89-118
  7. Yeum, S.C. 1993. An Analysis of Timber Demand and Supply in the Republic of Korea. Master graduation thesis. Department of Forest Resources, Seoul National University
  8. O, H.S. and Lee, K.W. 1980. Timber industry and prospect of timber demand and supply in the Republic of Korea. Korea Rural Economic Institute. Research report 14
  9. Youn, Y.-C. and Kim, E.G. 1992. A Study on the Demand for Timber in South Korea -with an Emphasis on the Long-Term Forecasts-. Jour. Korean For. Soc. 81(2):124-138
  10. Cho, O.H. and Ro, J.H. 1976 Study on timber demand volume survey and timber long-term demand forecast. Korea Forestry Experiment Research Report: 46-106
  11. Joo, R.W. and Lee, S.Y. 1998. Development of an Econometric Model to Project Trends in Forest Products Markets in the Republic of Korea. FRI. Jou. For. Sci. 58: 72-92
  12. Chae, J.C., Sung, K.C. and Kim, J.H. 1977. Study on timber demand volume and timber demand forecast. Korea Forestry Experiment Research Report: 57-107
  13. Korea Customs Service 1977-1997. Republic of Korea. Annual foreign trade statistics
  14. Adams, D.M., Roy, B. and John, A. 1992. Evaluating the Stability of Softwood Lumber Demand Elasticity by End-Use Sector: A Stochastic Parameter Approach. For. Sci., 38(4): 825-841
  15. Anders, B. and Lars, L. 1987. A World of the Demand for Paperand Paperboard. Forest Sci., 33(1): 185-196
  16. Baudin, A. 1987. A world model of the demand for paper and paperboard For. Sci., 33(1): 185-196
  17. Darius, M. Adams, Roy, Boyd and John, Angle. 1992. Evaluating the Stability of Softwood Lumber Demand Elasticity by End-Use Sector: A Stochastic Parameter Approach. Forest Sci., 38(4): 825-841
  18. Larry, A.L. 1981. Innovation and Product Diffusion in the Wood-based Product Industry. A dissertation for the degree of doctor of philosophy. Department of Forestry,Michigan State University
  19. Kmenta, J. 1990. Elements of Econometrics. 635-648
  20. Runar Brannlund, Per-Olov Johansson and Karl Gustaf Lofgren. 1985. An Econometric Analysis Saw Timber and Pulpwood Supply in Sweden. Forest Sci., 31(3):595-606
  21. Varian, H.R. 1991. Microeconomic Analysis 3th