Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회지)

The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회)
권호 표지

Developing the Bullwhip Effect Measure in a Supply Chain Considering Seasonal Demand and Stochastic Lead Time

공급사슬에서 계절적 수요와 추계적 조달기간을 고려한 채찍효과 측도의 개발

  • 조동원 (한양대학교 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 이영해 (한양대학교 산업경영공학과)
  • Published : 2009.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The bullwhip effect means the phenomenon of increasing demand variation as moving UP to the upstream in the supply chain. Therefore, it is recognized that the bullwhip effect is problematic for effective supply chain operations. In this paper, we exactly quantifies the bullwhip effect for the case of stochastic lead time and seasonal demand in two-echelon supply chain where retailer employs a base-stock policy considering SARMA demand processes and stochastic lead time. We also investigate the behavior of the proposed measurement for the bullwhip effect with autoregressive and moving average coefficient, stochastic lead time, and seasonal factor.

Keywords

References

  1. 조동원, 이영해, '공급사슬에서 계절적 수요를 고려한 채찍효과 측도의 개발', '대한산업공학회지', 제35권, 제3호(2009), pp.203-212
  2. Alwan, L.C., J, Liu, and D.Q. Yao, 'Stochastic Characterization of Upstream Demand Processes in a Supply Chain,' IIE Transactions, Vol.35, No.3(2003), pp.207-219 https://doi.org/10.1080/07408170304368
  3. Box, G.E.P. and G.M. Jenkins, Time Series Analysis : Forecasting and Control, Revised Edition, Holden-Day, San Francisco, California, 1976
  4. Chen, F., Z. Drezner, J.K. Ryan, and D. Simchi-Levi, 'Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain : The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information,' Management Science, Vol.46, No.3(2000a), pp.436-443 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.3.436.12069
  5. Chen, F., J.K. Ryan, and D. Simchi-Levi, 'The Impact of Exponential Smoothing Forecasts on the Bullwhip Effect,' Naval Research Logistics, Vol.47, No.4(2000b), pp.269-286 https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1520-6750(200006)47:4<269::AID-NAV1>3.0.CO;2-Q
  6. Chopra, S. and P. Meindl, Supply Chain Management : Strategy, Planning and Operations, Pearson International Edition, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, 2007
  7. Disney, S.M. and D.R. Towill, 'Vendor-managed Inventory and Bullwhip Reduction in a Two-level Supply Chain,' International Journal c! Operations and Production Management, Vol.23, No.6(2003), pp.621-651 https://doi.org/10.1108/01443570310476654
  8. Due, T.T.H., H.T. Luong, and Y.-D. Kim, 'A Measure of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with a Mixed Autoregressive-moving Average Demand Process,' European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.187, No.1(2008a), pp.243-256 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2007.03.008
  9. Duc, T.T.H., H.T. Luong, and Y.-D. Kim, 'A Measure of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with stochastic lead time,' The international Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, Vol.38, No.11-12(2008b), pp.1201-1212 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-007-1170-1
  10. Forrester, J.W., Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1969
  11. Gilbert, K.C., 'An ARIMA Supply Chain Model,' Management Science, Vol.51, No.2(2005), pp.305-310 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0308
  12. Gilbert, K.C. and V. Chatpattananan, 'An ARIMA Supply Chain Model with a Generalized Ordering Policy,' Journal of Modeling in Management, Vol.1, No.1(2006), pp.33-51 https://doi.org/10.1108/17465660610667793
  13. Graves, S.C., 'A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process,' Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, Vol.1, No.1(1999), pp.50-61 https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1.1.50
  14. Heyman, D. and M. Sobel, Stochastic Models in Operations Research, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1984
  15. Kelle, P. and A. Milne, 'The Effect of (s, S) Ordering Policy on the Supply Chain,' International Journal of Production Economics, Vol.59, No.1-3(1999), pp.113-122 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-5273(98)00232-1
  16. Kim, J.G., D. Chatfield, T.P. Harrison, and J.C. Hayya, 'Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain with Stochastic Lead Time,' European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.173, No.2(2006), pp.617-636 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2005.01.043
  17. Lee, H.L., K.C. So, and C.S. Tang, 'The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain,' Management Science, Vol.46, No.5(2000)), pp.626-643 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.5.626.12047
  18. Lee, H.L., V. Padmanabhan, and S.G. Whang, 'The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain,' Sloan Management Review, Vol.38, No.3(1997a), pp.93-102
  19. Lee, H.L., V. Padmanabhan, and S.G. Whang, 'Information Distortion in a Supply Chain : The Bullwhip Effect,' Management Science, Vol.43, No.4(1997b), pp.546-558 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.4.546
  20. Lin, C.H. and Y.T. Lin, 'Mitigating the Bullwhip Effect by Reducing Demand Variance in the Supply Chain,' The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing, Vol.28, No.3-4(2006), pp.328-336 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-004-2371-5
  21. Luong, H.T., 'Measure of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with Autoregressive Demand Process,' European Journal of Operational Research., Vol.180, No.3(2007), pp.1086-1097 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.02.050
  22. Luong, H.T. and Phien, 'Measure of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains : The case of high order autoregressive demand process,' European Journal of Operational Research. Vol.183, No.1(2007), pp.197-209 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.09.061
  23. McCullen, P. and D. Towill, 'Diagnosis and Reduction of Bullwhip in Supply Chains,' Supply Chain Management : An International Journal, Vol.7, No.3(2002), pp.164-179 https://doi.org/10.1108/13598540210436612
  24. Nahamis, S., Production and Operations Analysis, 3rd ed., Irwin McGraw-Hill, New York, 1997
  25. Paik, S.-K. and P.K. Bagchi, 'Understanding the Causes of the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain,' International Journal of Retail and Distribution Management, Vol.35, No.4 (2007), pp.308-324 https://doi.org/10.1108/09590550710736229
  26. Sterman, J.D., 'Modeling Managerial Behavior : Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment,' Management Science, Vol.35, No.3(1989), pp.321-339 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.35.3.321
  27. Towill, D.R., M.M. Naim, and J. Wlkner, 'Industrial Dynamics Simulation Models in the Design of Supply Chains,' International Journal of Physical Distribution and. Logistics Management, Vol.22, No.5(1992), pp.3-13 https://doi.org/10.1108/09600039210016995
  28. Wei, W.W.S., Time Series Analysis : Univariate and Multivariate Methods, Addison-Wesley, Redwood City, California, 1990
  29. Zhang, X., 'The Impact of Forecasting Methods on the Bullwhip Effect,' International Journal of Production Economics, Vol.88, No.1(2004), pp.15-27 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-5273(03)00128-2
  30. Lee, H.L., V. Padmanabhan, and S.G. Whang, 'Information Distortion in a Supply Chain : The Bullwhip Effect,' Management Science, Vol.43, No.4(1997b), pp.546-558 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.4.546