Trends in the Climate Change of Surface Temperature using Structural Time Series Model

구조적 시계열 모형을 이용한 기온 자료에 대한 기후변화 추세 분석

  • 이정형 (동아대학교 경영정보과학부) ;
  • 손건태 (부산대학교 수학통계학부)
  • Received : 2008.04.24
  • Accepted : 2008.08.20
  • Published : 2008.09.01

Abstract

This study employs a structural time series method in order to model and estimate stochastic trend of surface temperatures of the globe, Northern Hemisphere, and Northeast Asia ($20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$, $100^{\circ}E{\sim}150^{\circ}E$). For this study the reanalysis data CRUTEM3 (CRU/Hadley Centre gridded land-surface air temperature Version 3) is used. The results show that in these three regions range from $0.268^{\circ}C$ to $0.336^{\circ}C$ in 1997, whereas these vary from $0.423^{\circ}C$ to $0.583^{\circ}C$ in 2007. The annual mean temperature over Northeast Asia has increased by $0.031^{\circ}C$ in 2007 compared to 1997. The climate change in surface temperatures over Northeast Asia is slightly higher than that over the Northern Hemisphere.

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