Change-Point in the Recent (1976-2005) Precipitation over South Korea

우리나라에서 최근 (1976-2005) 강수의 변화 시점

This study presents a change-point in the 30 years (1976-2005) time series of the annual and the heavy precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) averaged over South Korea using Bayesian approach. The criterion for the heavy precipitation used in this study is 80 mm/day. Using non-informative priors, the exact Bayes estimators of parameters and unknown change-point are obtained. Also, the posterior probability and 90% highest posterior density credible intervals for the mean differences between before and after the change-point are examined. The results show that a single change-point in the precipitation intensity and the heavy precipitation characteristics has occurred around 1996. As the results, the precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation characteristics have clearly increased after the change-point. However, the annual precipitation amount and days show a statistically insignificant single change-point model. These results are consistent with earlier works based on a simple linear regression model.