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농촌그린빌리지 조성을 위한 일별 잠재적 태양광발전량의 적정확률분포형 추정 - 서산지역을 중심으로 -

Estimating Optimal Probability Distributions of Daily Potential Photovoltaic Power Generation for Development of Rural Green-Village by Solar Energy - with Area of Seosan Weather Station -

  • 김대식 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 생물자원공학부) ;
  • 구승모 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 농업경제학과) ;
  • 남상운 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 생물자원공학부)
  • 발행 : 2008.11.30

초록

Photovoltaic power generation is currently being recognized as one of the most popular sources for renewable resources over the country. Although it is also being adapted to rural area for may reasons, it is important to estimate the magnitudes of power outputs with reliable statistical methodologies, while applying historical daily solar energy data, for correct feasibility analysis. In this study, one of the well-known statistical methodologies is employed to define the appropriate probability distributions for monthly power outputs for the selected rural area, county of Seo-san, province of Chungnam. The results imply that the assumption of normal distributions for several months may lead to incorrect decision-making and therefore lead to the unreliable feasibility analysis. Generalized beta and triangular distributions were found to be superior to normal distribution, when describing monthly probability distributions for daily photovoltaic power. Based on the appropriate distributions resulted from this study, Monte Carlo simulation technique was also applied to provide additional flexible information for the relevant decision makers. This study found out new finding that the probability distributions should be considered to make planning of the photovoltaic power system in rural village unit, in order to give reasonable economic analysis to the decision makers.

키워드

참고문헌

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피인용 문헌

  1. Statistics and Probability Distribution of Total Coliforms in Wastewater vol.55, pp.3, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2013.55.3.105