Comparison of Ensemble Perturbations using Lorenz-95 Model: Bred vectors, Orthogonal Bred vectors and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter(ETKF)

로렌쯔-95 모델을 이용한 앙상블 섭동 비교: 브레드벡터, 직교 브레드벡터와 앙상블 칼만 필터

Using the Lorenz-95 simple model, which can simulate many atmospheric characteristics, we compare the performance of ensemble strategies such as bred vectors, the bred vectors rotated (to be orthogonal to each bred member), and the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF). The performance metrics used are the RMSE of ensemble means, the ratio of RMS error of ensemble mean to the spread of ensemble, rank histograms to see if the ensemble member can well represent the true probability density function (pdf), and the distribution of eigen-values of the forecast ensemble, which can provide useful information on the independence of each member. In the meantime, the orthogonal bred vectors can achieve the considerable progress comparing the bred vectors in all aspects of RMSE, spread, and independence of members. When we rotate the bred vectors for orthogonalization, the improvement rate for the spread of ensemble is almost as double as that for RMS error of ensemble mean compared to the non-rotated bred vectors on a simple model. It appears that the result is consistent with the tentative test on the operational model in KMA. In conclusion, ETKF is superior to the other two methods in all terms of the assesment ways we used when it comes to ensemble prediction. But we cannot decide which perturbation strategy is better in aspect of the structure of the background error covariance. It appears that further studies on the best perturbation way for hybrid variational data assimilation to consider an error-of-the-day(EOTD) should be needed.