상하수도학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater)

  • 제21권1호
  • /
  • Pages.75-82
  • /
  • 2007
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  • 1225-7672(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2287-822X(eISSN)
대한상하수도학회 (The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater)
권호 표지

시스템 다이나믹스를 이용한 도시 물수요 장기 예측의 동적 모델 연구

Dynamic Model of a Long-term Water Demand Using System Dynamics

  • 이상은 (한국과학기술원 건설 및 환경공학과) ;
  • 최동진 (국토환경연구소) ;
  • 박희경 (한국과학기술원 건설 및 환경공학과)
  • 투고 : 2006.10.31
  • 심사 : 2007.01.08
  • 발행 : 2007.02.15
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초록

When one forecasts urban water demand in a long-term, multivariate model can give more benefits than per capita requirement model. However, the former has shortcomings in that statistically high explanatory power cannot be obtained well, and change in customer behavior cannot be considered. If the past water consumption effects the future water demand, dynamic model may describe real water consumption data better than static model, i.e. the existing multivariate model. On these grounds, this study built dynamic model using system dynamics. From a case study in Seoul and Busan city, dynamic model was expected to forecast water demand more descriptively and reliably.

키워드

참고문헌

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  4. 환경부 (연도별) 상수도 통계
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