동태적 기술수준 측정 방법에 대한 이론적 접근 : 차세대성장동력 기술의 사례분석

A theoretical approach and its application for a dynamic method of estimating and analyzing science and technology levels : case application to ten core technologies for the next generation growth engine

과학기술 수준을 정확히 측정 분석하기 위해서는 우리 기술수준과 비교대상의 위치, 그리고 해당 기술의 이론적인 상한 수준을 우선 전제해야만 한다. 그리고 각각의 기술변화 정도를 파악하는 것이 추가적으로 필요하다. 우리나라 및 비교대상에 대한 동태적 측면이 고려되어 현재의 위치와 함께 과정과 경로도 중요시 되어야 한다. 이를 위해서 이 연구는 기술발전 단계와 성장곡선 개념을 활용하는 방안을 제시한다. 이론적 및 가상적 사례 적용 결과, 우리나라 기술수준의 향상은 뚜렷하게 보이고 있으나 같은 기간에 지속적으로 변화하고 있는 세계최고기술 수준과는 여전히 격차가 존재하는 것으로 추정된다. 추정 결과가 사실이라고 가정할 경우, 우리나라 기술의 실질적인 추격의 가능성은 그리 크지 않은 것으로 보인다. 특히, 바이오신약 장기 분야와 지능형로봇 분야의 경우에는 세계최고기술 수준과의 격차기간이 더욱 벌어지고 있는 것으로 추정되어 해당 분야에 대한 실질적이고, 심층적인 검토 및 분석이 시급히 요구된다. 이 연구는 기술수준 측정과 분석을 성장곡선 유형의 추정을 통해 위상분석과 변화과정을 파악하여 궁극적인 추격의 가능성을 제시한다. 이론적 타당성과 현실적 적용성에 대한 검증을 위해 향후 구체적인 사례분석이 필요하다.

To estimate and analyze an interested science and technology level in any case requires three basic informations: (1) relative positions of our technology level, (2) other relevant technology level of the world best country holding the state of the art technology, and (3) its theoretical or practical maximum level within a certain period of time. Further, additional information from analyzing its respective rate of technology changes is necessary. It seems that most previous empirical or case studies on technology level have not considered third and fourth informations seriously, and thus critically have missed important findings from a dynamic point of view on the matter. A dynamic approach considering types of development processes and paths as well as current position needs an application of a concept of technology development stages and respective growth curves. This paper proposes a new method of approach and application by implementing relatively simple types of the growth curve(S-curve) such as logistic and Comports curves and applying estimation results of these curves to ten core technologies of the growth engines for the next future generation in Korea. The study implies that Korean science and technology level in general clearly gets higher as it approaches to a recent time of period, but relative technology gap from the world best in terms of catching-up period does not get better or narrower in case of at least part of the concerned technologies such as bio new drugs and human organs, and intelligence robots. The possibility does exist that some of our concerned technologies shooting for the next future generation may not come to the world highest level in the near future. The purpose of this study is to propose possibilities of catching-up, if any, by estimating its relevant type of growth pattern by way of measuring and analyzing technology level and by analyzing the technology development process through a position analysis. At this stage this study tries to introduce a new theoretical approach of estimating technology level and its application to existing case study results(data) from Korea Institute of Science and Technology Planning and Evaluation(KISTEP) and Korea Institute of Industrial Technology Evaluation and Planing(ITEP), for years of 2004 and 2006 respectively. The study has some limitations in terms of accuracy of measuring(estimating) a relevant growth curve to a particular technology, feasibility of applying estimated results, accessing and analyzing panel experts opinions. Hence, it is recommended that further study would follow soon enough to verify practical applicability and possible expansion of the study results.