Journal of the Korean Statistical Society

  • 제35권1호
  • /
  • Pages.37-47
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  • 2006
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  • 1226-3192(pISSN)
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  • 2005-2863(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
권호 표지

PREDICTION MEAN SQUARED ERROR OF THE POISSON INAR(1) PROCESS WITH ESTIMATED PARAMETERS

  • 발행 : 2006.03.01
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초록

Recently, as a result of the growing interest in modeling stationary processes with discrete marginal distributions, several models for integer valued time series have been proposed in the literature. One of these models is the integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models. However, when modeling with integer-valued autoregressive processes, the distributional properties of forecasts have been not yet discovered due to the difficulty in handling the Steutal Van Ham thinning operator 'o' (Steutal and van Ham, 1979). In this study, we derive the mean squared error of h-step-ahead prediction from a Poisson INAR(1) process, reflecting the effect of the variability of parameter estimates in the prediction mean squared error.

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참고문헌

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