Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Natural Spread Pattern of Damaged Area by Pine Wilt Disease Using Geostatistical Analysis

공간통계학적 방법에 의한 소나무 재선충 피해의 자연적 확산유형분석

  • Son, Min-Ho (Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Woo-Kyun (Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Seung-Ho (Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Cho, Hyun-Kook (Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Jun-Hak (Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California)
  • Received : 2006.08.16
  • Accepted : 2006.05.08
  • Published : 2006.09.30
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Abstract

Recently, dispersion of damaged forest by pine wilt disease has been regarded as a serious social issue. Damages by pine wilt disease have been spreaded by natural area expansion of the vectors in the damaged area, while the national wide damage spread has induced by human-involved carrying infected trees out of damaged area. In this study, damaged trees were detected and located on the digital map by aerial photograph and terrestrial surveys. The spatial distribution pattern of damaged trees, and the relationship of spatial distribution of damaged trees and some geomorphological factors were geostatistically analysed. Finally, we maked natural spread pattern map of pine wilt disease using geostatistical CART(Classification and Regression Trees) model. This study verified that geostatistical analysis and CART model are useful tools for understanding spatial distribution and natural spread pattern of pine wilt diseases.

최근, 소나무재선충(Bursaphelenchus xylophilus)에 의한 소나무림의 피해에 대한 사회적 심각성이 크게 대두되고 있다. 소나무 재선충에 의한 산림피해는 피해지 내에서는 매개충인 솔수염하늘소의 자연적인 영역확장에 의해 확산되는 반면, 전국적으로는 감염목의 인위적 반출 및 이동에 의해 확산이 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 부산 대변항의 재선충 피해지내에서 항공사진 및 현지조사에 의해 피해목의 공간적인 위치를 파악하였고, 공간통계학적인 방법을 통하여 피해목의 공간분포유형, 피해발생과 지형인자간의 관계를 분석하였다. 또한, 지형공간자료를 통계학적 Tree 모형에 적용한 CART(Classification and Regression Trees)모형을 이용하여 재선충 피해의 자연적인 확산 예측 지도를 작성하였다. 본 연구를 통해 공간통계학적인 분석과 CART모형이 소나무재선충 피해의 공간분포 및 자연적 확산유형을 파악하는데 유용한 도구로 활용될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Grant : GIS 및 공간통계학적 기법을 이용한 산림병해충 피해발생 및 확산 모형개발

Supported by : 과학기술부

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