Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering (산업경영시스템학회지)

Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering (한국산업경영시스템학회)
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Forecasting Accidents by Transforming Event Trees into Influence disgrams

  • Published : 2006.03.31
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Abstract

Event trees are widely used graphical tool to denote the accident inintiation and escalation to more severe accident. But they have some drawbacks in that they do not have efficient way of updating model parameters and also they can not contain the information about dependency or independency among model parameters. A tool that can cure such drawbacks is an influence diagram. We introduce influence diagrams and explain how to update model parameters and obtain predictive distributions. We show that an event tree can be converted to a statistically equivalent influence diagram, and bayesian prediction can be made more effectively through the use of influence diagrams.

Keywords

References

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