보건행정학회지 (Health Policy and Management)

  • 제15권4호
  • /
  • Pages.81-109
  • /
  • 2005
  • /
  • 1225-4266(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2289-0149(eISSN)
한국보건행정학회 (Korean Academy of Health Policy and Management)
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재무지표 비교 분석에 의한 병원도산예측모형 평가

Evaluation on Bankruptcy Prediction Model of Hospital using the comparative Analysis of Financial Index

  • 김재명 (강원대학교 경영 관광 회계학부) ;
  • 안영창 (한림성심대학 의료보험심사과)
  • Kim, Jae-Myeong (Dept. of Business and Tourism and Accounting, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Ahn, Young-Chang (Dept. of Medical Treatment Claim and Review. Hallym College)
  • 발행 : 2005.12.01
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초록

According to many recent studies suggesting that cash flow analysis method tends to be more effective than traditional financial index analysis method to predict corporate bankruptcy, this study applies the cash flow analysis method to hospital business to identify the significant variables which can distinguish between superior hospitals and bankruptcy hospitals. The author analyzed recent 3 years, i.e. from the year of 2000 to the year of 2002, financial statements of 31 bankrupt hospitals In 2003, and the same number of superior hospitals through using Multiple Discriminant Analysis and Logit Analysis. The results are belows; First, the study releases that Logit Analysis is more likely to be effective than Multiple Discriminant Analysis. Second, this research also shows that traditional financial index analysis method is more superior compare to cash flow analysis method for hospital bankruptcy predict model. Finally, this study suggest that the significant variables, which can distinguish superior hospitals from bankrupt hospitals, are Operating/Current Liabilities$(Y_2)$, CFO/Equity$(Y_5)$ for cash flow analysis method and Net Worth to Total Assets Ratio$(X_1)$, Quick Ratio $(X_3)$, Return on Assets$(X_6)$, Growth Rate of Patient Revenues$(X_{16})$ for traditional financial index analysis method.

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