Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A Study of Relationships between the Sea Surface Temperatures and Rainfall in Korea

해수면온도와 우리나라 강우량과의 상관성 분석

  • Published : 2005.12.01
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Abstract

In this study, the principal components of rainfall in Korea are extracted by a method which consists of the independent component analysis combined with the wavelet transform, to examine the spatial correlation between seasonal rainfalls and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The 2-8 year band retains a strong wavelet power spectrum and the low frequency characteristics are shown by the wavelet analysis. The independent component analysis is performed by using the Scale Average Wavelet Power(SAWP) that is estimated by wavelet analysis. Interannual-interdecadal variation is the dominant variation, and an increasing trend is observed in the spring and summer seasons. The relationships between principal components of rainfall in the spring/summer seasons and SSTs existed in Indian and Pacific Oceans. Particularly, the SST zones, which represent a statistically significant correlation are located in the Philippine offshore and Australia offshore. Also, the three month leading SSTs in the same region we strongly correlated with the rainfall. Hence, these results propose a promising possibility of seasonal rainfall prediction by SST predictors.

본 연구에서는 우리나라 강우량과 광범위한 해수면 온도(SST)와의 공간적인 상관성 분석을 위해서 Wavelet 분석과 독립성분분석을 결합하여 계절강우량의 주요성분을 추출하였다. 계절강우량의 Wavelet분석결과 2년과 8년 사이의 주기에서 강한 스펙트럼을 나타내었으며 모든 계절강우량에 대하여 저빈도 특성을 확인할 수 있었다. Wavelet에서 추출된 Scale Average Wavelet Power(SAWP)를 대상으로 독립성분분석을 실시하였으며 계절에 따라 경년변화와 10년 이상의 주기를 갖는 성분을 확인할 수 있었고 봄과 여름의 주성분에서 증가경향의 성분을 관측할 수 있었다. 추출된 강우량의 주성분과 SST와의 상관관계를 평가한 결과 봄과 여름 강우량에서 인도양과 일부 태평양에서 강한 상관관계를 나타내었다 특히, 인도양의 필리핀 연안과 태평양의 호주 연안에서 통계적으로 유의한 상계관계를 갖는 SST구역을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 3개월 이전 SST와 강우량에 대해서도 이들 구역에서 큰 상관성을 나타내었으며 이들 3개월 SST를 이용하여 강우량의 예측 가능성을 제시하였다.

Keywords

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