응용통계연구 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics)

  • 제18권3호
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  • Pages.639-654
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  • 2005
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  • 1225-066X(pISSN)
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  • 2383-5818(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
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사망률 예측을 위한 모형 비교

A Comparison of Two Models for Forecasting Mortality in South Korea

  • 박유성 (고려대학교 정경대학 통계학과) ;
  • 김기환 (고려대학교 자연과학대학 정보통계학과) ;
  • 이동희 (고려대학교 통계연구소) ;
  • 이연경 (고려대학교 정경대학 통계학과 대학원)
  • 발행 : 2005.11.01
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초록

사망률 예측에 많이 사용되고 있는 Lee and Carter모형은 간결한 구조와 상대적으로 안정적인 예측력을 갖고 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 그러나 연령별 사망률의 감소속도가 일정하게 유지된다는 가정으로 인하여 최근 연령별 사망률의 감소 패턴을 적절히 반영하지 못하고, 공변량을 사용할 수 없어 예측력을 제고할 수 없다는 제한점을 갖고 있다. 본 논문에서는 두 개의 확률과정을 이용하여 Lee and Carter 모형의 단점을 보완할 수 있는 Park, Choi and Kim의 모형을 소개하고 두 모형의 구조적인 특징을 서술하였다. 또한 각 모형에서 우리나라의 자료로 2005에서 2050년까지의 남녀별 예측기대여명을 작성하여 비교하였다.

The Lee and Carter method has widely used to forecast mortality because of the simple structure of model and the stable forecasting. The Lee and Carter method, however, also has limitations. The assumption of the rate of decline in mortality at each age remaining invariant over time has been violated in several decades. And, there is no way to include covariates in the model for better forecasts. Here we introduce Park, Choi and Kim method to make up for Lee and Carter's weak points by using two random processes. We discuss structural features of two methods. furthermore, for each method, we forecast life expectancy for 2005 to 2050 using South Korea data and compare the results.

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참고문헌

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