Journal of the Korean earth science society (한국지구과학회지)

The Korean Earth Science Society (한국지구과학회)
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Forecasting the Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Pacific by Neural Network Model

신경망 모델을 이용한 적도 태평양 표층 수온 예측

  • Chang You-Soon (Marine Meteorology & Earthquake Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute) ;
  • Lee Da-Un (Marine Meteorology & Earthquake Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute) ;
  • Seo Jang-Won (Marine Meteorology & Earthquake Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute) ;
  • Youn Yong-Hoon (Marine Meteorology & Earthquake Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute)
  • 장유순 (기상청 기상연구소 해양기상지진연구실) ;
  • 이다운 (기상청 기상연구소 해양기상지진연구실) ;
  • 서장원 (기상청 기상연구소 해양기상지진연구실) ;
  • 윤용훈 (기상청 기상연구소 해양기상지진연구실)
  • Published : 2005.04.01
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Abstract

One of the nonlinear statistical modelling, neural network method was applied to predict the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino regions, which represent El Nino indices. The data used as inputs in the training step of neural network model were the first seven empirical orthogonal functions in the tropical Pacific $(120^{\circ}\;E,\;20^{\circ}\;S-20^{\circ}\;N)$ obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The period of 1951 to 1993 was adopted for the training of neural network model, and the period 1994 to 2003 for the forecasting validation. Forecasting results suggested that neural network models were resonable for SSTA forecasting until 9-month lead time. They also predicted greatly the development and decay of strong E1 Nino occurred in 1997-1998 years. Especially, Nino3 region appeared to be the best forecast region, while the forecast skills rapidly decreased since 9-month lead time. However, in the Nino1+2 region where they are relatively low by the influence of local effects, they did not decrease even after 9-month lead time.

대표적인 엘니뇨 지수인 태평양 Nino 해역의 표층 수온을 예측하기 위해 비선형 통계모델 중의 하나인 신경망 기법을 적용하였다. 신경망 모델 학습 과정의 입력 자료로 1951년부터 1993년까지의 태평양 해역$(120^{\circ}\;E,\;20^{\circ}\;S-20^{\circ}\;N)$ NCEP/NCAR의 재분석 표층 수온 편차의 경험적 직교함수 7개 주모드를 사용하였고, 그 중 1994년부터 2003년까지의 10년 결과를 분석하였다. 모든 해역에서의 9개월까지의 신경망 모델의 예측력은 비교적 우수하였으며, 특히 1997년과 1998년의 강한 엘니뇨의 발달 및 소멸도 잘 예측함을 확인할 수 있었다. 해역별로는 Nino3 지역의 예측성능이 가장 높았으며, 9개월 이후부터는 그 예측력이 급격히 감소하였다. 한편 지역적인 영향이 커 예측력이 낮은 동태평양 연안의 Nino1+2 지역은 9개월 이후에도 예측력의 감소가 관찰되지 않았다.

Keywords

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