Abstract
A spatial simulation model for rural and urban sprawl phenomena was developed with GIS and cellular automata techniques. The model finds out built-up areas invading toward rural areas required for development of existing urban area. Probability of land use change for optimizing the development area was determined using a land suitability analysis method interfaced with GIS methods, based on several criteria in terms of geographic and accessibility factors such as slope of land and distance from city center. Weighting values of the criteria were quantified by an analytic hierarchy process method. For model applicability test, the parameters of criteria were calibrated based on the changes in time series land use data of the test city for 1986, 1996, and 2000, which were classified by remote sensing techniques. Simulated and observed areas in land use maps for city shape of 1996 showed good similarities with each other through a morphology verification method. The model enabled us to evaluate the spatial expansion phenomena of cities considering boundary conditions, and also to simulate land use planning for rural areas in urban fringe.