Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Does Water Consumption Cause Economic Growth Vice-Versa, or Neither? Evidence from Korea

한국에서의 물소비와 경제성장 -오차수정모형을 이용하여-

  • 임혜진 (고려대학교 대학원 경제학과) ;
  • 유승훈 (호서대학교 경상학부) ;
  • 곽승준 (고려대학교 정경대학 경제학과)
  • Published : 2004.10.01
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine relationship between water consumption and economic growth in Korea, and to obtain policy implications of the results. To this end, we attempt to provide more careful consideration of the causality issues by applying rigorous techniques of Granger causality. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger causality based on an error-correction model are presented. The existence of bi-directional causality between water consumption and economic growth in Korea is detected. This finding has various implications for policy analysts and forecasters in Korea. Economic growth requires enormous water consumption, though there are many other factors contributing to economic growth, and water consumption is but one part of it. Thus, this study generates confidence in decisions to invest in the water supply infrastructure. Moreover, this study lends support to the argument that an increase in real income, ceteris paribus, gives rise to water consumption. Economic growth results in a higher proportion of national income spent on water supply services and stimulates further water consumption.

본 연구의 목적은 한국에서의 물소비와 경제성장간의 관계를 분석하여 그 결과에 대한 정책적 함의를 도출하는 것이다. 이러한 목적을 달성하기 위해, 본 연구는 보다 엄밀한 Granger 인과성 기법을 적용하여 인과성 문제를 좀더 세심하게 살펴보았다. 단위근, 공적분 그리고 오차수정모형을 통한 Granger 인과성 검정의 적용 결과, 한국에서의 물소비와 경제성장 사이에 양방향의 인과성이 존재함이 발견되었다. 이러한 발견은 우리나라 전체를 위한 정책분석 혹은 정책예측에서 몇 가지 유용한 정책적 시사점을 제공한다. 경제성장에 영향을 미치는 많은 다른 요인들이 존재하고 물소비는 이 중의 일부이긴 하지만, 경제정장의 촉진을 위해서는 물소비에 지장을 초래하지 않도록 충분한 투자가 요구된다. 따라서 전국의 상수도 인프라를 확충하기 위한 상수도 관련 투자는 경제성장을 촉진할 것이다. 또한 본 연구는 실질소득 증가가 물소비의 증가를 가져온다는 주장도 성립함을 확인하였다. 경제성장의 결과, 더 높은 비율의 소득이 상수도 관련 인프라에 투자되고 더 나아가 국민들의 삶의 질 향상과 산업체에서의 생산활동 증가 등에 따라 물의 사용을 늘리게 한다.

Keywords

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