Abstract
As the high-speed internet access market steadily nears its maturity phase, growth is quickly tapering off and competition, intensifying. As a result telecommunications companies are at present faced with the urgent need to evolve away from a growth model based on continuous acquisition of new subscribers. The recent convergence of telecommunication and broadcasting has come about precisely at this transitional period in the telecommunications market, and is perceived by the industry both as a new business opportunity and as a threat. TV-based VOD(Video on Demand), for one, is able to attract new customers desiring multimedia services of superior quality and to lock-in existing customers. Meanwhile, the latest evolution in network development is brightening the market prospect for TV-based VOD. The service has now hit the market, deployed over VDSL networks - a next-generation high-speed internet - and advanced cable modem networks, delivering high-definition DVD-quality videos. TV-based VOD is a service whose deployment is closely linked to the evolution of subscriber networks. According to the forecast produced by the present study, based on the forecast on the post-ADSL market and a survey conducted on VOD, as post-ADSL subscribers increase from 1.53 million in 2003 to 4.44 million in 2004, and 9.87 million in 2006, the percentage of post-ADSL subscribers with intention to also subscribe to a VOD service is expected to rise from 16% to 34% in 2006. Accordingly, VOD subscribers are estimated to increase from 0.24 million in 2003 to 0.98 million in 2004 and to 3.35 million in 2006.
