IE interfaces (산업공학)

Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회)
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A Study on the Demand Forecasting by using Transfer Function with the Short Term Time Series and Analyzing the Effect of Marketing Policy

단기 시계열 제품의 전이함수를 이용한 수요예측과 마케팅 정책에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

  • Seo, Myeong-Yu (School of Industrial &System Engineering, Dongguk University) ;
  • Rhee, Jong-Tae (School of Industrial &System Engineering, Dongguk University)
  • 서명율 (동국대학교 산업시스템공학부) ;
  • 이종태 (동국대학교 산업시스템공학부)
  • Received : 20030500
  • Accepted : 20030900
  • Published : 2003.12.31
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Abstract

Most of the demand forecasting which have been studied is about long-term time series over 15 years demand forecasting. In this paper, we set up the most optimal ARIMA model for the short-term time series demand forecasting and suggest demand forecasting system for short-term time series by appraising suitability and predictability. We are going to use the univariate ARIMA model in parallel with the bivariate transfer function model to improve the accuracy of forecasting. We also analyze the effect of advertisement cost, scale of branch stores, and number of clerk on the establishment of marketing policy by applying statistical methods. After then we are going to show you customer's needs, which are number of buying products. We have applied this method to forecast the annual sales of refrigerator in four branch stores of A company.

Keywords

References

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