Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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A Study on Improving Forecasting Accuracy for Expenditures of Residential Building Projects through Selecting Similar Cases

  • Published : 2003.12.01
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Abstract

Dynamic and fragmented characteristics are two of the most significant factors that distinguish the construction industry from other industries. Previous forecasting techniques have failed to solve the problems derived from the above characteristics, and do not provide considerable support This paper deals with providing a more precise forecasting by applying Case-based Reasoning (CBR). The newly developed model in this study enables project managers to forecast monthly expenditures with less time and effort by retrieving and referring only projects of a similar nature, while filtering out irrelevant cases included in database. For the purpose of accurate forecasting, the choice of the numbers of referring projects was investigated. It is concluded that selecting similar projects at $5{\~}6{\%}$ out of the whole database will produce a more precise forecasting. The new forecasting model, which suggests the predicted values based on previous projects, is more than just a forecasting methodology; it provides a bridge that enables current data collection techniques to be used within the context of the accumulated information. This will eventually help all the participants in the construction industry to build up the knowledge derived from invaluable experience.

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