초록
Bayes theorem, suggested by the British Mathematician Bayes (18th century), enables the prior estimate of the probability of an event under the condition given by a specific This theorem has been frequently used to revise the failure probability of a component or system. 2-Stage Bayesian procedure was firstly published by Shultis et al. (1981) and Kaplan (1983), and was further developed based on the studies of Hora & Iman (1990) Papazpgolou et al., Porn(1993). For a small observed failure number (below 12), the estimated reliability of a system or component is not reliable. In the case in which the reliability data of the corresponding system or component can be found in a generic reliability reference book, however, a reliable estimation of the failure probability can be realized by using Bayes theorem, which jointly makes use of the observed data (specific data) and the data found in reference book (generic data).
