LH-모멘트의 적정 차수 결정에 의한 설계홍수량 추정(II)

Estimation of Design Flood by the Determination of Best Fitting Order of LH-Moments(II)

  • 발행 : 2003.01.01

초록

This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order for LH-moments of the annual maximum series at fifteen watersheds. Using the LH-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the optimal regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) in the first report of this project. Parameters of GEV distribution and flood flows of return period n years were derived by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments. Frequency analysis of flood flow data generated by Monte Carlo simulation was performed by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments using GEV distribution. Relative Root Mean Square Error. (RRMSE), Relative Bias (RBIAS) and Relative Efficiency (RE.) using methods of L, Ll , L2, L3 and L4-moments for GEV distribution were computed and compared with those resulting from Monte Carlo simulation. At almost all of the watersheds, the more the order of LH-moments and the return periods increased, the more RE became, while the less RRMSE and RBIAS became. The Absolute Relative Reduction (ARR) for the design flood was computed. The more the order of LH-moments increased, the less ARR of all applied watershed became It was confirmed that confidence efficiency of estimated design flood was increased as the order of LH-moments increased. Consequently, design floods for the appled watersheds were derived by the methods of L3 and L4-moments among LH-moments in view of high confidence efficiency.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Hosking, J. R. M. and J. R. Wallis. 1993. Some Statistics useful in Regional Frequency Analysis. Water Resources Research 29(2): 271-281
  2. Hosking, J. R. M. and J. R. Wallis. 1996. 44 Regional Frequency Analysis of floods in Central Appalachia. NY 10598. Watson Research Center Yorktown Heights.' IBM Research Division T.Y.
  3. Hosking, J. R. M. and J. R. Wallis. 1997. Regional Frequency Analysis: Cambridge University Press
  4. Lee, S. H., M. G. Park, S. J. Maeng, Y. S. Jung and K. S. Ryoo, 1999. Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by L- Moments and LH- Moments(II). Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 41(3): 41-50. (in Korean)
  5. Lee, S. H., J. H. Park, K. S. Ryoo, H. K. Jee, T. K. Jeon and Y. H. Shin. 2001. Estimation of Design Rainfall by the Regional Frequency Analysis using Higher Probability Weighted Moments and GIS Techniques(II). Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 43(5): 70-82. (in Korean)
  6. Maidment, D. R. 1992. Handbook of Hydrology: McGraw-Hill, Inc
  7. McCuen, R. H. 1993. Microcomputer Applications in Statistical Hydrology : PTR Prentice Hall
  8. Reed, D. 1999. Flood Estimation Handbook: Institute of Hydrology UK
  9. Wang, Q. J. 1997. LH Moments for Statistical Analysis of Extreme Events. Water Resources Research 33(2): 2841-2848
  10. World Meteorological Organization. 1989. Statistical Distributions for Flood Frequency Analysis: A4.1-A4.14