법정근로시간 단축의 거시경제 효과 분석

An Empirical Analysis on Macro-economic Effects of the Proposed Reduction of Legal Working Hours in Korea

본 논문은 법정근로시간 단축에 대한 이론적 및 실증적 효과를 분석한다. 법정근로시간 단축은 이론적으로 임금소득을 상승시키며 소비를 촉진하는 효과가 있는 반면 실근로시간은 약간 줄어들거나 정체하며 비용 상승이 클 경우 고용이 감소하는 효과를 일으킨다. 거시모형을 통한 실증분석은 법정근로시간 단축으로 실질임금이 상승하고 소비가 증대하는 반면 실근로시간의 단축은 법정근로시간 단축 크기의 절반 정도에 그치고 비용 인상 인플레이션이 일어나 GDP와 투자가 감소하는 결과를 낳는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 법정근로시간 단축이 단계적으로 시행될수록, 그리고 월차휴가, 생리휴가 폐지와 같은 보완장치가 더불어 시행될수록 이 같은 부정적인 효과는 줄어드는 것으로 나타났다.

This study analyzes effects of the proposed reduction of legal working hours in Korea in which base wage is unchanged with working hours reduction. The theoretical analysis shows that a reduction of legal working hours would result in less than equal size reduction of actual working hours, and increase in wages. On the other hand, the effects on employment is ambiguous depending on the substitution effect and scale effect. An empirical analysis based on macro-economic model simulation supports the theoretical conjecture. It has been found that with the reduction of legal working hours, real wages and consumption increase while actual working hours decreases about half of the legal hours reduction. In addition, the immediate and outright imposition of legal hours reduction on all sectors of the economy is found to create a cost push inflation and reduce GDP, investment, and employment. This negative effects are lessened as the reduction of legal hours is gradually made and/or some measures to absorb the cost shock such as abolition of paid monthly leave are employed together.