온실가스 배출 감축이 한국경제와 에너지산업에 미치는 영향 - CGE 모형을 사용한 경제적 분석 -

The Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Abatement on Korean Economy and Energy Industries : An Economic Analysis Using a CGE Model

This paper analyzed what kind of institutional scheme for domestic policy instruments to reduce GHG emissions are desirable for Korea in complying with the international efforts to mitigate climate change, by focusing on independent abatement(equivalent to the imposition of carbon tax) and domestic emission trading. It also examined the economic and environmental implications of recycling the government revenue created from implementation of those policies. By utilizing a dynamic CGE model, this study shows that the economic cost under independent abatement is projected to be higher than that under emission trading. It is because under independent abatement scheme each emitter in economy must meet its emission target regardless of the abatement cost. On the other hand, emission trading allows emitters to reduce the marginal cost of abatement through trading of emission permits. In designing future domestic policies and measure to address the climate change problem in Korea, therefore, this study proposes the introduction of domestic emission trading scheme as the main domestic policy instrument for GHG emission abatement. In terms of double dividend, in addition, this study shows that both independent abatement and emission trading schemes under various assumption on the revenue recycling may not generate the double dividend in Korea.