Abstract
This paper presents an econometric model for measuring basic research capacity index(BRCI) of each OECD countries and analyses the gap in terms of time lag measured and forecasted in connection with factor analysis and BRCI progress function. Based on the analysis, gross domestic expenditure on R&D(GERD), total R&D personnel higher education expenditure on R&D(HERD) and number of science and technical papers based on SCI are more effective than other factors to BRCI. Also, BRCI progress function shows that 29 years is needed for Korea to catch up the level of German's BRCI of year 1998. But, it's impossible for Korea to catch up US and Japan. Therefore, with restricted scientific resources, Korea's own strategy for strengthening basic research capacity is going to be more important in 21st century.