응용통계연구 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics)

  • 제14권2호
  • /
  • Pages.233-243
  • /
  • 2001
  • /
  • 1225-066X(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2383-5818(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
권호 표지

확산모형과 성장곡선모형을 이용한 중장기 수요예측에 관한 연구

A Study on the Demand Forecasting using Diffusion Models and Growth Curve Models

  • 강현철 (호서대학교 자연과학부 수학전공) ;
  • 최종후 (고려대학교 자연과학대학 정보통계학과)
  • 발행 : 2001.09.01
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

중장기 수요예측을 위해 자주 사용되는 방법으로 확산모형과 성장곡선모형을 들 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이들 방법론의 성격 및 실제 적용에 있어 모수추정에 따른 문제점들을 살펴보고, 모수추정을 효율적으로 수행하기 위한 전략을 제시한다. 또한 실제 자료에 각 방법론들을 적용하여 예측결과를 비교한다.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. 응용통계 v.13 성장곡선모형에 의한 수요예측시스템의 개발 최종후;양우성
  2. Management Science v.15 A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durable Bass, F. M.
  3. Journal of Bussiness v.53 The Relationship Between Diffusion Rates, Experience Curves, and Demand Elasticities for Consumer Durable Technological Innovations Bass, F. M.
  4. Management Science v.4 Models of New-Product Diffusion Through Advertising and Word-of-Mouth Dodson, J. A.;Muller, E.
  5. Journal of Marketing v.25 Early Prediction of Market Success for Grocery Products Fort, L. W.;Woodlock, J. W.
  6. Journal of Business Research v.16 Advertising and the Application od Bass-Type New Product Growth Models to Durable Sales Forecasting Horsky, D.;Simon, L. S.
  7. Management Science v.31 A New Product Adoption Model With Pricing, Advertising and Uncertainty Kalish, S.
  8. Journal of Marketing v.54 New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A review and Directions for Research Mahajan, V.;Muller, E.;Bass, F. M.
  9. Management Science v.24 Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population Mahajan, V.;Peterson, R. A.
  10. Econometrica v.29 Technical Change and the Rate of Limitation Mansfield, E.
  11. Management Science v.33 A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High Technology Products Nortan, J. A.;Bass, F. M.
  12. Management Science v.21 Dynamic Price Models for New Product Planning Robinson, B.;Lakhani, C.
  13. SAS SAS OnlineDoc, Version 8 SAS Institute
  14. Marketing Science v.1 Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance Schmittlein, D. C.;Mahajan, V.
  15. Marketing Science v.5 Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models Srinivasan, W. E.;Mason, C. H.
  16. Journal of Marketing Research v.44 Kalman Filter Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models Xie, J.;Song, M.;Sirbu, M.;Wang, Q.
  17. Technological Forecasting and Social Change v.44 Technological Growth Curve: A Competition of Forecasting Models Young, P.