섬유제품 수출입 수요의 예측에 관한 연구

A Study on the Forecasting Export-Import Demands for Textile Products

This study concerns the export-import demands for Korean textile, textile products and clothing products. The result from the practice of study is as follows ; it predicts the constant increase as a result of prediction in the nation's total amount of export-import including the export-import amount of textile, textile-product, and clothing product. It is estimated that nation's textile trade balance will be about U $ 13 billion of trade surplus in every year from 2000 to 2003. Other hand, the trade balance of textile product is predicted about U $ 1.39 billion surplus, so is clothing product about U $ 3.29 billion surplus. Textile ratio is presumed to gradually decrease in aspect of export. Also, the portion of textile export in our national total export is predicted to reduce to 11.61% in the 2003. On the other hand, Textile import ratio will be constantly increased and the portion of textile import in our national total import is predicted to reach to 3.92% in 2003. Textile-product ratio is also estimated to increase in the area of export & 33.12% in 2003. Clothing product ratio is also estimated to increase annually. What with increasing ratio of clothing-product export in textile-product export reaching to total 0.87% within for 4 years(62.96% in 2003, 63.83% in 2003) and what with increasing ratio of clothing-product import in textile-product import reaching to total 6.42%(83.89% in 2000, 90.31% in 2003), it can be said that increase of its import will be much higher than that of export.