대기중 총분진과 사망자수에 관한 분석

An analysis of air apollution and daily mortality

  • 김호 (서울대학교 보건대학원 보건학과 및 국민보건연구소)
  • Kim, Ho (Department of Eplidemilogy and Biostatistics, and Institute of Public Health, School of Public Health, Seoul National University)
  • 발행 : 2000.09.01

초록

대기오염 자료와 사망자수 자료를 이용하여 대기중 총분진이 사망자수에 미치는 영향을 1996~1997년 서울 자료를 이용하여 분석하였다. 대기오염 자료에서 보이는 강한 계절성과 장기간의 경향 그리고 기온과 습도의 비선형관계를 고려하여 일반화 부가모형(generalized additive model)을 사용하였고, 그 결과 대기중 총분진 100$\mu$g/㎥ 증가시 초과사망자는 3%(95% 신뢰구간 : 0.8-5.2)로 추정되었다. 사례-교차연구(case-crossover study)의 결과를 보면 한 방향(후향적, 전향적)으로의 대조기간 설정 방법은 편향된 추정치를 주었고 양방향 방법은 회귀계수의 추정치는 일반화 부가모형과 거의 같은 결과를 주었지만 표준오차는 상대적으로 큰 값을 주었다. 이상에서 볼 때 대기오염 자료의 분석과 같이 계절성이 큰 자료에서는 사례-교차 연구를 적용할 때 주의가 요구됨을 알 수 있었다.

Relationship between the daily mortality and total suspended particulate(TSP) for the period of 1996-1997 was examined in Seoul, Korea. Generalized additive model was adapted for the analysis to allow the seasonality and long-term time effect in the air pollution and the nonlinear relationships with weather variables such as air temperature and relative humidity. An increase of 100 Ji9/m') TSP corresponds to 0.8-5.2 percent increase of the daily mortality Unidirectional (prospective and retrospective) case-crossover design results in large bias of the estimates. Bidirectional method gives relatively unbiased estimates but the standard errors are larger Case-crossover design should be used with caution in the situation where the data have seasonal trends like air pollution study.

키워드

참고문헌

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