A Study on the Forecasting of Import Demands for Textile, Textile Products & Clothing Products

섬유류, 섬유제품 및 의류제품 수입수요의 예측에 관한 연구

The object of this study is to predict the import demands for korean textile, textile products and clothing products. The analyzing method performs through demand prediction method is by using Exponential Smoothing Model and STATGRAPHICS. The result from the practice of study is as follows ; Textile import ratio is expected to be increased constantly and the portion of textile import in our national total import is precited to reach to 3.92% in 2003. The import of the textile product to textile will be increased to 33.12% in 2003. The import ratio of clothing product ratio is also estimated to increase annually, Import ratio of clothing-product in textile-product import reaching to total 6.42% (83.89% in 2000, 90.31% in 2003), the growth rate of clothing import will be much higher than that of clothing export. From 2000 to 2003 , textile import is precited to be 5.23%. The import of the textile product will be increased by 8.04%. The import of clothing product will reaches 11.21%, which would be the highest rate among the products under review. Also , it predicts the constant increase as a result of prediction in the nation's total amount of import including the import amount of textile, textile-product, and clothing product.