Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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Using Traffic Prediction Models for Providing Predictive Traveler Information : Reviews & Prospects

교통정보 제공을 위한 교통예측모형의 활용

  • Ran, Bin (Dept. of Civil & Environment Eng., Univ. of Wisconsin.) ;
  • Choi, Kee-Choo (Dept. of Transportation Eng., Ajou Univ.)
  • Published : 1999.03.01
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Abstract

This paper first reviews current practices of traveler information providing and provides some perspectives regarding the possible near term milestones in traveler information providing. Then, reviews of four types of prediction models: 1) dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model; 2) statistical model; 3) simulation model; and 4) heuristic model are described in the sense that various prediction models are needed to support providing predictive traveler information in the near future. Next, the functional requirements and capabilities of the four types of prediction models are discussed and summarized along with some advantages and disadvantages of these models with reference to short-term travel time prediction. Furthermore, a comprehensive prediction procedure, which combines the four types of prediction models, is presented, together with the data requirements for each type of prediction model.

본 논문은 현재 및 가까운 미래에 있을 교통정보의 제공에 관한 일반적인 가능성으로서 교통현상의 기술이 가능한 교통예측모형의 사용에 대한 총체적인 정리를 함과 함께 바람직한 모형의 제시가 주요 목적이다. 이를 위하여 우선 동적교통배정모형, 통계모형, 모의실험모형, 및 휴리스틱모형이 어떵게 교통정보제공을 위해서 사용될 수 있는지를 각 모형별 제반 특성적 측면에서 검토를 한다. 다음에 이러한 모형의 각종 요구사항이 분석되며, 더 나아가 단기간 교통 상황을 예측하기 위한 각 모형의 능력 및 장단점이 서술적인 관점에서 기술되어진다. 마지막으로, 이러한 각각의 장점을 수용할 수 있을 만한 포괄적인 예측모형의 전형이 그러한 모형을 구축함에 있어서 필요로 하는 데이터의 요구조건과 함께 제시된다.

Keywords

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