천문학논총 (Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society)
- 제14권2호
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- Pages.103-112
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- 1999
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- 1225-1534(pISSN)
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- 2287-6936(eISSN)
태양활동극대기를 대비한 태양활동예보
THE PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY FOR SOLAR MAXIMUM
-
LEE JINNY
(Department of Astronomy & Space Science, Kyung Hee University) ;
- JANG SE JIN (Department of Astronomy & Space Science, Kyung Hee University) ;
- KIM YEON HAN (Department of Astronomy & Space Science, Kyung Hee University) ;
-
KIM KAP-SUNG
(Department of Astronomy & Space Science, Kyung Hee University)
- 발행 : 1999.12.01
초록
We have investigated the solar activity variation with period shorter than 1000 days, through Fourier transformation of solar cycle 21 and 22 data. And real time predictions of the flare maximum intensity have been made by multilinear regression method to allow the use of multivariate vectors of sunspot groups or active region characteristics. In addition, we have examined the evolution of magnetic field and current density in active regions at times before and after flare occurrence, to check short term variability of solar activity. According to our results of calculation, solar activity changes with periods of 27.1, 28.0, 52.1, 156.3, 333.3 days for solar cycle 21 and of 26.5, 27.1, 28.9, 54.1, 154, 176.7, 384.6 days for solar cycle 22. Periodic components of about 27, 28, 53, 155 days are found simultaneously at all of two solar cycles. Finally, from our intensive analysis of solar activity data for three different terms of