A Continuous Sequential Decision Process Model for R&D Economic Feasibility Assessment of the GDHS in Chejoo Island and Its Application

제주도 GDHS의 R&D투자 타당성 분석을 위한 연속적 SDP모형의 개발 및 응용사례연구

A GDHS(Geothermal District Heating System) is a heating system supplying a group of districts with heat extracted from geothermal sources. Due to various advantages of GDHS including the saving of fuel consumption as well as the reduction of air pollution, a world-wide trend is to replace central/individual heating systems with GDH systems. The basic point of this paper is that a crash program mentality leads to inappropriate decisions about policy issues in large-scale research and development like the development of GDHS, R&D funding should be viewed as a sequential decision, not a once-and-for-all choice. Hence we develop on economic feasibility assessment model based on a continuous sequential decision process for the Chejoo Island GDHS Project by modifying Roberts's model.