Statistical Estimate and Prediction Values with Reference to Chronological Change of Body Height and Weight in Korean Youth

한국인 청소년 신장과 체중의 시대적 변천에 따른 통계학적 추정치에 관한 연구

As compared with body height and body weight by ages and sexes, by means of the data reported under other researchers from 1967 to 1994 for 33 years, this study obtained the estimate value of body height and body weight by ages and sexes for the same period, and figured out prediction value of body height and body weight in the ages of between 6 and 14 from 1995 to 2000. These surveys and measurements took for one year from October 1st 1994 to September 30th. As shown in the 〈Table 1〉, in order to calculate the establishment, estimate value and prediction value of the chronological regression model of body height and body weight, by well-grounded 17 representative research papers, this research statistically tested propriety of liner regression model by the residual analysis in advance of being reconciled to simple liner regression model by the autonomous variable-year and the subordinate variable-body weight and measured prediction value, theoretical value from 1962 to 1994 by means of 2nd or 3rd polynomial regression model, with this redult did prediction value from 1995 to 2000. 1. Chronological Change of Body Height and Body Weight The analysis result from regression model of the chronological body height and body weight for the aged 6 - 16 in both sexes ranging from 1962 to 1994, corned from the 〈Table 2-20〉. On the one hand, the measurement value of respective researchers had a bit changes by ages with age growing, but the other hand, theoretical value, prediction value showed the regular increase by the stages and all values indicated a straight line on growth and development with age growing. That is, in case of the aged 6, males had 109.93cm in 1962 and females 108.93cm, but we found the increase that males had 1I8.0cm, females 1I3.9cm. In theoretical value, prediction value, males showed the increase from 109.88cm to 1I7.89cm and females from 109.27cm to 1I5.64cm respectively. There was the same inclination toward all ages. 2. Comparision to Measurement Value and Prediction Value of Body Height and Body Weight in 1994 As shown in the 〈Table 21〉, in case of body height, measurement value and prediction value of body height and body weight by ages and sexes almost showed the similiar inclination and poor grade, in case of body weight, prediction value in males had a bit low value by all ages, and prediction value in females had a high value in adolescence, to the contrary, a low value in adult. 3. Prediction Value of Body Height and Body Weight from 1995 to 2000 This research showed that body height and body weight remarkably increased in adolescence but slowly in adult. This study represented that Korean physique was on the increase and must be measured continually hereafter.