Abstract
The purpose of this study is to make an improvement to the batch-means method, which is a procedure to construct a confidence interval(c.i.) for the steady-state process mean of a stationary simulation output process. In the batch-means method, the data in the output process are grouped into batches. The sequence of means of the data included in individual batches is called a batch-menas process and can be treated as an independently and identically distributed set of variables if each batch includes sufficiently large number of observations. The traditional batch-means method, therefore, uses a batch size as large as possible in order to. destroy the autocovariance remaining in the batch-means process. The c.i. prodedure developed and empirically tested in this study uses a small batch size which can be well fitted by a simple ARMA model, and then utilizes the dependence structure in the fitted model to correct for bias in the variance estimator of the sample mean.