The Prognostic Value of the First Day and Daily Updated Scores of the APACHE III System in Sepsis

패혈증환자에서 APACHE III Scoring System의 예후적 가치

Background: The index which could predict the prognosis of critically ill patients is needed to find out high risk patients and to individualize their treatment. The APACHE III scoring system was established in 1991, but there has been only a few studies concerning its prognostic value. We wanted to know whether the APACHE III scores have prognostic value in discriminating survivors from nonsurvivors in sepsis. Methods: In 48 patients meeting the Bones criteria for sepsis, we retrospectively surveyed the day 1(D1), day 2(D2) and day 3(D3) scores of patients who were admitted to intensive care unit. The scores of the sepsis survivors and nonsurvivors were compared in respect to the D1 score, and also in respect to the changes of the updated D2 and D3 scores. Results: 1) Of the 48 sepsis patients, 21(43.5%) survived and 27(56.5%) died. The nonsurvivors were older($62.7{\pm}12.6$ vs $51.1{\pm}18.1$ yrs), presented with lower mean arterial pressure($56.9{\pm}26.2$ vs $67.7{\pm}14.2\;mmHg$) and showed greater number of multisystem organ failure($1.2{\pm}0.8$ vs $0.2{\pm}0.4$) than the survivors(p<0.05, respectively). There were no significant differences in sex and initial body temperature between the two groups. 2) The D1 score was lower in the survivors (n=21) than in the nonsurvivors ($44.1{\pm}14.6$, $78.5{\pm}18.6$, p=0.0001). The D2 and D3 scores significantly decreased in the survivors (D1 vs D2, $44.1{\pm}14.6$ : $37.9{\pm}15.0$, p=0.035; D2 vs D3, $37.9{\pm}15.0$ : $30.1{\pm}9.3$, p=0.0001) but showed a tendency to increase in the nonsurvivors (D1 vs D2 (n=21), $78.5{\pm}18.6$ : $81.3{\pm}23.0$, p=0.1337; D2 vs D3 (n=11), $68.2{\pm}19.3$ : $75.3{\pm}18.8$, p=0.0078). 3) The D1 scores of 12 survivors and 6 nonsurvivors were in the same range of 42~67 (mean D1 score, $53.8{\pm}10.0$ in the survivors, $55.3{\pm}10.3$ in the nonsurvivors). The age, sex, initial body temperature, and mean arterial pressure were not different between the two groups. In this group, however, D2 and D3 was significantly decreased in the survivors(D1 vs D2, $53.3{\pm}10.0$ : $43.6{\pm}16.4$, p=0.0278; D2 vs D3, $43.6{\pm}16.4$ : $31.2{\pm}10.3$, p=0.0005), but showed a tendency to increase in the nonsurvivors(D1 vs D2 (n=6), $55.3{\pm}10.3:66.7{\pm}13.9$, p=0.1562; D2 vs D3 (n=4), $64.0{\pm}16.4:74.3{\pm}18.6$, p=0.1250). Among the individual items of the first day APACHE III score, only the score of respiratory rate was capable of discriminating the nonsurvivors from the survivors ($5.5{\pm}2.9$ vs $1.9{\pm}3.7$, p=0.046) in this group. Conclusion: In sepsis, nonsurvivors had higher first day APACHE III score and their updated scores on the following days failed to decline but showed a tendency to increase. Survivors, on the other hand, had lower first day score and showed decline in the updated APACHE scores. These results suggest that the first day and daily updated APACHE III scores are useful in predicting the outcome and assessing the response to management in patients with sepsis.

연구배경: 중환자의 예후를 정량화하는 체점체계 중 APACHE III system은 중환자실 제 1병일 점수는 물론 일갱신 점수도 환자의 위험도를 갱신하는 것이 알려진 바 있어 패혈증 환자들에서 APACHE III score의 예후 지표로서의 가치를 알아 보고자 하였다. 방법: 48명의 패혈증 환자들에서 후향적으로 중환자실 제 1병일, 2병일 및 3병일의 APACHE III score를 조사하여 패혈증 생존자와 비생존자 간의 차이를 분석하였다. 결과: 패혈증 생존자는 비생존자에 비해 APACHE III system에 따른 중환자실 제 1병일 정수가 유의하게 낮았으며, 제 2일 및 제 3일의 점수도 각각의 전날 점수에 비해 유의하게 감소하였다. 폐혈증 비생존자의 경우 제 1병일 점수가 생존자에 비해 높았고, 제 2병일 및 제 3병일 점수 역시 각각의 전날 점수에 비해 증가하는 경향을 보였다. 결론: APACHE III system에 따른 제 1병일 점수 및 제 3병일까지의 점수의 일변동은 패혈증 환자의 예후를 반영하는 것으로 사려된다.